Without black swan, Dems’ goose is cooked

Charlie Cook predicts that November 2, 2010, will be a very bad day for Democrats:

As we head toward November’s mid-term elections, the outlook remains dire for Democrats. For the trajectory of this campaign season to change in their favor, two things need to happen — unemployment must drop significantly, and the public’s attitude toward the new health care reform law must become much more positive. Neither seems likely, though.

Increasingly, it appears that for Democrats to turn things around, Republicans would have to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or a “black swan” — an extraordinarily unexpected event that causes a tremendous change — would have to swim to the rescue of the president’s party.

He goes through the various ways the GOP could blow it, but concludes:

So the Republican Party has its difficulties, but the national political environment remains good for the GOP. If anything holds down GOP gains, it’s more likely to be Republican voters’ in some races opting for weak nominees or a huge game-changing event that takes everyone by surprise rather than Democrats’ figuring out how to turn their own situation around.

h/t: Jennifer Rubin

Obamacare isn’t something that improves upon closer acquaintance:  States have no idea how to implement Obamacare or what it will cost. Well, at least the states are in good fiscal shape. Oops. Not so much. Maybe this wasn’t the best time to drop a 16-ton entitlement on them.

And the entire Obama agenda is terminally unpopular: It’s the agenda, stupid.