About that NBC Poll

A new poll was released last week that was done by NBC/Marist for Virginia.  The poll has Obama leading Romney by 5.  Now Virginia is going to be a very important part of a Romney win.  He can still win without it, but his life will be much easier if he does indeed pull it out.  But as usual, the poll is very misleading.  The internals of the poll is always you need to look to see if you are being given proper information.

Virginia has a black population of 19% of the total.  This poll has 18% blacks out of 996 of likely voters.  They are being over-sampled.  One would have to assume that every black person in the state is going to vote.  In the last presidential election under 62% of eligible voters made it to the polls.  I can’t find that broken down demographically.  But one must assume that not every black person in the state voted, as you know, some are not 18.  This is also true with the Hispanic population in the state, which by 2010 census numbers are 7.9% of the total population and are 7% of this poll.  They also over-sampled women.

We then can look at the breakdown of locations across the state.  If you look at the most traditionally heavy democratic areas, they are where the majority of the where the sampling was done.

Gee one would think they wanted to Obama come out on top in this poll.  Every poll I have looked at has been skewed towards democrats.  I have not looked at the internals of the Rasmussen Polls because they give out that info to their paid subscribers.  But from what I have seen not one of the major polls has been done in a way that can be trusted.

We don’t register by party in this state, but the one thing that I know for sure is that the registration numbers are up in more traditional GOP areas of the state.  I don’t think anyone but the parties have a true picture of where the electorate is heading.  So all we can do is watch they are doing and how they are spending their resources and their time.

What is really sad is that the votes are driven by polling.  People think to themselves well so and so is going to win, so I don’t need to vote or they just go along with who they believe is going to win.  The media outlets who commission these polls are driving a false narrative and since most people won’t look at the internals of the polls, they don’t even realize that they are being manipulated.  A very sad commentary.