Tagged: gop nomination Toggle Comment Threads | Keyboard Shortcuts

  • just a conservative girl 10:33 PM on 03/20/2012 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , gop nomination, mcdonell, , , , , , , vp stakes,   

    Romney Wins Big – Let the VP Stakes Begin 

    First, I take no pleasure whatsoever saying this.  Romney will be the GOP nominee.  Santorum has run out of field.  There are not enough truly conservative states left to get him to the nomination.  Of course he will keep going in the hopes of a contested convention, but in their hearts of hearts they know it is not in the cards.

    Therefore, it is time.  VP Stakes:

    There are plenty to choose from.

    Herman Cain: I don’t see it.  The issues that came up about the affair would scare off any candidate in my mind.  Why deal with that distraction when you don’t have to?  I give this almost no chance.

    Paul Ryan: A great choice, but very young.  He also has very young children who he doesn’t want to put into the spotlight at their tender ages.  Which just makes me love him all the more.  Also, very remote chance of this happening.

    Chris Christie:  This is a non-starter as far as I am concerned.  I like many things about Christie, but he adds nothing to the ticket.  He won’t bring NJ over to the GOP.  He is just as moderate as Romney is in most respects.  So I give this almost no chance.

    Michele Bachman: She will excite the base, but let’s be honest; she is a loose cannon.  Romney won’t take the chance of her blowing his last chance at being president.

    Marco Rubio: He is dynamic and from a swing state.  He had a great deal of tea party support.  Notice I said had.  There are many in the Tea Party who have lost confidence in him.  He has some issues with a brother-in-law who has had some drug dealing issues.  Of course that has nothing to do with him, he didn’t marry the guy, but the media will have some fun with that.  He also has said that he has zero intention of taking it even if offered.  Of course much easier to say no to a reporter than to the nominee.  He is also young.  He may feel he isn’t ready yet.   I would give this a 50/50 chance.

    Allen West: West has been favorable towards Newt, although he never came out and endorsed him.  West has the entire package that the conservative base is looking for.  He will make an excellent attack dog on the stump.  He will pull no punches with Obama, which will allow Romney to stay above the fray and concentrate on comparing and contrasting policies with the Obama administration.  West had some issues in Iraq that will come up again.  He sometimes doesn’t always filter what he is saying.  He also just moved in order to run for congress again.  I would give this maybe a 40% chance.

    Sarah Palin: Heaven knows she has been vetted.  But she is also very polarizing.  I also don’t think she would accept.  Why be the small dog again when she had the chance to run for the big seat and decided to bow out?  I give this less than a 20% chance.

    Rand Paul: I like Rand.  A lot as a matter of fact.  He also is another that will take on Obama without fear.  His down side is that it will add fuel to the fire to the people who accused Romney and Ron Paul of working together and Rand getting the VP seat as the payoff.  It will alienate the people who believe this.  But, it may bring in Ron Paul fans.  Not likely, but some may be willing to vote for him.  I would say this is about a 30% chance.

    I don’t see him taking any of the candidates he went up against.  The blood between Newt and him is way to bad for it to be repaired.  It looks like it is starting to get that way with Rick now as well.  I would give this the least likely of the scenarios.

    My pick is Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia.  He is currently the head of the RGA.  Has a rising profile nationally.  He has spoken at the Reagan library recently and was received well.  His administration has been very successful.  He has increased revenues without raising taxes, VA’s ratings has increased under his administration, he has kept most of his promises when he was elected, (one more year to fulfill the balance).  He is also a very good campaigner.  He is a staunch conservative, which Romney needs to excite the base.  Virginia is a swing state, and right now is trending to Obama by 8 points with Romney as the nominee.  (Which Romney was the best of the remaining candidates).

     

    Your predictions?

     
    • signpainterguy 11:03 PM on 03/20/2012 Permalink | Reply

      With Romney only just past 1/3 of the way to 1,440 delegates required to garner the nomination, you might at least “consider” that you could be jumping the gun a bit early. Santorum has already surprised the “experts” ! Much can happen and I pray it will ! I do not want Rombama !

      Alan West would fill the VP bill for me.

      Marco Rubio just may be ineligible as his parents were not citizens at the time of his birth; IF I understand it correctly. A shame; I like his brand of conservatism !

      • just a conservative girl 6:58 AM on 03/21/2012 Permalink | Reply

        There is no viable path to the nomination for anyone but Romney. You have to remember a few things, starting April 1 most states become winner takes all. You also have to look at many of the states that are left, Maryland, CT, CA, are not going to vote for Santorum. Where he does well is where they are large numbers of evangelicals. He also still has places where he is not even on the ballot; DC for instance. He also has issues with delegates in PA. He has very few delegates that he can win in that state, even though he will more than likely win the state.

        It is over. Romney is the nominee. Rick had to have IL last night to have any kind of chance and he fell way short.

        Cubans back in the 60’s were given citizenship very quickly. He may very well have been born to citizens. Also, the court has never ruled on what Natural Born Citizen means. I admire your consistency in the matter though. I have read quite a few people going after Santorum as well.

        • signpainterguy 5:05 PM on 03/21/2012 Permalink | Reply

          As I said, Santorum won some states the experts said he wouldn`t; I`m not giving up on him !

          Article 2, Section 1 of the US Constitution is clear enough on what constitutes a Natural Born Citizen; a person born on US lands to parents who are citizens. Notice “parents” is plural; meaning, not one parent or the other, but BOTH ! THAT makes Obama ineligible. IF Cubans were given immediate(ish) citizenship, then there`s probably no issue with Rubio`s NBC status ! That would be good !

    • Joe 3:27 AM on 03/21/2012 Permalink | Reply

      If you any understanding of math Rick has lost. He’s beginning to embarass himself. If Mitt picks Rand and flips the NADA hes got my vote.

    • fuzislippers 5:17 PM on 03/25/2012 Permalink | Reply

      Great post. Romney needs two things: foreign policy cred and TEA Party support. Make that three things, actually, because he needs to reach out to minorities, too.

      For these reasons, the short list for the Romney campaign probably includes Rubio, Jindal, and West. No way in hell is either Palin or Bachmann on it, but they may be stupid enough to consider Christie or Rand Paul. I doubt he’s thinking Ryan as Ryan’s strength is the economy and budget (the same as Romney’s purported strengths). Ryan would add to a Santorum ticket, not Romney’s. I’d love to see him pick Herman Cain, but seriously doubt it’s even a distant thought. My pick is Colonel West.

      There is a chance that he’ll go with Nicki Haley, a smart choice for the women’s/minority vote, but I wouldn’t put money on that one.

      • just a conservative girl 6:03 PM on 03/25/2012 Permalink | Reply

        The reason that I think he will go McDonnell over West is that Romney is a play it safe kind of guy and West is very bold choice. I am not sure he is that bold.

        • fuzislippers 6:18 PM on 03/25/2012 Permalink | Reply

          I like McDonnell, but he adds nothing to the Romney ticket. He’d balance an unhinged Newt, tho. ;)

          • just a conservative girl 6:45 PM on 03/25/2012 Permalink | Reply

            Well A. Newt won’t be the nominee (much to your happiness I am sure;}) and B. he can’t take McDonnell anyway. They are from the same state. You are right, West adds a great deal, but I still think it is a little more bold than Romney is willing to go.

            • fuzislippers 6:50 PM on 03/25/2012 Permalink | Reply

              Oh Romney will all but sell his soul for a political win. He proved that in 1994.

  • just a conservative girl 3:01 PM on 01/02/2012 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: gop nomination, , , , ,   

    Iowa Predicitions 

    For what it is worth, here are my predictions for tomorrow’s caucus in Iowa.  


    While Ron Paul has been falling in the polls over the past week, I still believe he will pull out the victory, but by a small margin.  The reason why is his supporters are loyal to a fault.  They are organized and energized.  They will show up tomorrow night no matter how much snow is on the ground or how cold it is.  No other candidate has that sort of energy behind him.  


    Sadly, Romney will come in second.  My thoughts on Romney becoming the nominee are no secret.  Yuck.  But I do believe that it is inevitable at this point.  I will give his campaign credit where credit is due.  Placing in the top three in Iowa is to paraphrase Biden a BFD.  Romney is not the type of candidate that normally does well in Iowa.  The largest part of the republican party are very social conservative.  


    Santorum will be the real stunner of tomorrow.  He will have a top three finish.  The problem is that he put all his eggs in the Iowa basket,  and not getting a real return on it until now.  He has no money and very little organization moving forward.  New Hampshire is only 8 days away.  Now Santorum is the type of candidate you would expect to do well in Iowa, but not in New Hampshire.  He lacks any clear economic policy of consequence, so he will not get traction moving forward.  I expect him to drop out right around South Carolina.  


    Perry will finish in the top 4.  He also seems to be catching fire again.  He also has social conservative creds that fit well with the average GOP’er in Iowa.  Unlike Santorum, his campaign is still well funded, and he has real plans for the economy and shrinking government.  So he can still catch fire down the road.  He will do well in South Carolina as well.  


    Newt’s star has faded.  He has little money and his inability to get on the ballot in Virginia and Missouri have shown the cracks of his campaign when it comes to discipline and organization.  As late as 10 days ago he didn’t have sponsors to speak for him at every voting location.  He may not still.  Ultimately, people want to vote for a winner and the person who is most likely to run a good general election campaign.  Newt ain’t it.  If he manages to get to Super Tuesday, he may be able to pick up some steam and give Romney a run for his money, but does he have the money to last that long?  Not likely.  


    Bachmann will finish dead last (Huntsman is not competing in Iowa) and will be dropping out of the campaign within the next 7 to 10 days.  I have said all along she wasn’t in it to win it.  She had something to prove to the leadership of the congress who didn’t back her desire for place at the leadership table. 

     
    • zillaoftheresistance 7:36 PM on 01/03/2012 Permalink | Reply

      Actually, Rick Santorum has also been pretty darned organized in New Hampshire AND South Carolina and has made many trips to both places in the past year. He’s been to these places more than most of the other candidates, you probably just don’t know about it because until very recently, everybody but a handful of us bloggers has been ignoring him completely.

  • just a conservative girl 10:47 PM on 01/01/2012 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: gop nomination, , ,   

    Video – Jon Huntsman Hits Ron Paul with Twilight Zone Label 

    I have actually enjoyed many of the Huntsman Videos.  I will miss them when he drops out shortly.

     
    • Beowulf 1:34 AM on 01/02/2012 Permalink | Reply

      Huntsman, alongside Gary Johnson, are the most successful GOP candidates among their peers in this nomination season.

      Rather than wax lyrical about what they will do, these two men have actually led their states successfully, and are both conservatives at heart; though to some, they remain not conservative enough – some mighty bloggers even accuse them of being liberals, leading to the sheeps also labeling them as such.

      I simply do not understand why these two men are not given the time of day, and have to suffer the indignity of being overshadowed by talkers like Santorum, Newt, Bachmann, Palin, DeMint, etc.

      Is the GOP looking for the best candidates, or are they looking for an antonym of Obama?

      • just a conservative girl 10:30 PM on 01/02/2012 Permalink | Reply

        I am not sure about Johnson, but I think that Huntsman would have been a very viable candidate in another cycle. But this cycle is very much guided by the grassroots and Huntsman’s working for Obama is something that the grassroots didn’t look kindly upon.

  • just a conservative girl 9:38 AM on 10/31/2011 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: gop nomination, , ,   

    Who is behind the Herman Cain Allegations 

    The traditional wisdom would point to the liberal media smear machine.  We have all heard this story before.  The left has gone out of its way to bring racism into the discussion about Mr. Cain.  I have only heard one comment about race coming from the right about Herman.  But, we have all heard plenty coming from the left.  The fact that we, as conservatives, would like a black man is something that they just can’t accept.  The narrative that we are racists runs so deep within the liberal left meme they just can’t let it go.

    But, the truth is that they are not the only ones that could be to blame.  Both Romney and Perry have something to gain from these stories.  Romney is getting his first real taste of competition in the polls with Herman.  Perry has fallen so low in the polls over the past month that he may be getting desperate.  While his statement today on Fox News Sunday says that he understands that this is a marathon, not a sprint.  But he is at about 7% in the last national poll.

    Rick Perry also just hired new staff.  Staff that worked on the Rick Scott for Governor campaign.  That was a very dirty campaign.  These staffers are perfectly willing to get into the dirt to get their candidate elected.  Mitt has been running for president for more than four years.  He isn’t going to let it go as easily this time as he did in the last cycle.

    We don’t know what the truth of these allegations are.  We know that he did not ask for sex.  Apparently, the allegations are about comments he made that two women found objectionable.  Allegedly they were given cash settlements when leaving the employment of the association.  As a person who has worked in the non-profit world for many years, this is not uncommon.  It is normally much cheaper for the organization to pay the claim than to fight it in court.  The gag order put on the settlement is also a very common occurrence as well.

    I certainly hope that Perry or Romney are not behind these allegations.  I would hate to think that anyone would sink this low in order to win the primary.  But it isn’t something that is out the realm of possibility.  We now know that the Hillary Clinton campaign leaked many of the most damaging allegations against Obama to the right-wing press, because they didn’t feel they could release the information without being called racists.

    I would like to know where this information came from.  Don’t you?

     

    The Other McCain has this:

    This is from the Arizona state coordinator for the Perry campaign.  Although, one would think that they would be smarter to tweet this the day before the story comes out.

     

    But, if someone on the GOP side did bring out these charges; shame and ridicule must be brought down upon them.

     
    • SignPainterGuy 6:37 PM on 10/31/2011 Permalink | Reply

      Kind of a toss up; Cain doesn`t fit the mold of a dyed in the wool plantation democrat nor a Rochefeller wing big-gov. Republican either !

  • just a conservative girl 9:25 AM on 08/13/2011 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , , gop nomination, , mccotter, , , , , straw poll   

    Ames Straw Poll Predications 

    Michele Bachmann will win by a small margin

    Ron Paul will come in second or third.  He is an expert at getting people to vote in straw polls

    Mitt Romney will do better than most people think. 

    Herman Cain will place in the top 6, but it will not be enough to give him the momentum he needs to raise his profile and much-needed cash

    Pawlenty really hurt himself the other night and he fill finish very poorly and will be dropping out of the race before the real vote is cast

    Gingrich will finish close to the bottom, he won’t be too far behind Pawlenty in calling it a day

    Huntsman won’t even register

    Rick Perry will have a very good showing even though he is a write in

    Sarah Palin will do remarkably well for someone who has not announced her candidacy

    Santorum I think will do better than originally predicted, he had a good showing at the debate last night, he is also beloved by social conservatives for his strong and outspoken voice for the voiceless on abortion

    McCotter may actually have a bit of an impact in the poll.  He has a wonderful dry sense of humor and is a Midwesterner  Some votes of his are suspect, but overall a good solid conservative

    I read in the paper today what the candidates are serving in their tents – i.e Cain is serving Godfather Pizza of course, Bachmann is doing B-B-Q and Funnel Cake, Paul wouldn’t announce what he was serving, but the funniest part is that almost every candidate is having Mike Huckabee playing his bass.  He will be making the rounds for the party tomorrow in Ames – I suppose he need to fill his one hour show on Fox

    Who do you think will win? 

     

     
    • SignPainterGuy 5:51 PM on 08/13/2011 Permalink | Reply

      If the current trend holds sway, Ron Paul will continue to win, though it makes no sense to me whatsoever ! The poll cards were surely printed by someone from deep inside the Twilight Zone !

      If I look at the view of the pundits after the debate, Romney will win, but again, how does someone win by virtue of simply “not losing” ? That`s the best I can say about his performance, because his debate responses were middling at best.

      Who do I want to win ? Cain, Santorum and then Bachmann, in that order. They`re the only candidates who have at heart what America really needs !

      Who do I think actually WILL win ? There are too many variables at play for me even to try to guess.

  • just a conservative girl 10:31 PM on 06/13/2011 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: gop nomination, , , , presidential race, ,   

    The CNN Debate 

    Just some quick thoughts as I don’t have a great deal of time. 

     I think that Michele Bachman did a great job.  She sometimes has a habit of getting her facts a little mixed up, but not tonight.  She showed that she is able to stay on topic and answer questions with quick soundbites that get to the point. 

     I think that Tim Pawlenty was the big winner tonight.  He came across as likable, knowledgeable, and a good conservative.  Job well done. 

     Newt showed why he has been described as the brain or the idea guy.  He is in his element in a debate format and tonight was no exception.  The big downside was that he outright lied in my opinion.  He is sticking to his ridiculous story that what he said about Paul Ryan was taken out of context.  It was a live interview Newt, we ain’t buying what you are trying to sell with this one.  You just made yourself look dishonest. 

     Herman Cain I think was one of the biggest losers.  Not because of his answers, just that he wasn’t given much of a chance to speak.  The questions went mainly to Romney, Newt, and Pawlenty.  I guess these are the three that CNN has deigned the viable candidates for the nomination.  Overall his performance was strong, just not nearly enough face time. 

     Ron Paul was Ron Paul.  I agree with much of what he would do on fiscal policy, but he loses me on social issues and foreign policy. 

     Romney was doing his somersaults about Romneycare or as Pawlenty’s newest phrase Obamney Care.  Not happening Mitt.  I am not buying it, you seem unwilling to sign an all out repeal and nothing less is acceptable.  Screw this waiver idea of yours. 

     Rick Santorum also did pretty well, he showed he can debate with the rest of the field.  Santorum is out for me, I will not vote for him even if he is the nominee so I don’t really care what he has to say. 

     What I did find refreshing is that they talked about some of the third rail topics.  Ethanol and entitlement reform.  We need to open and honest to the American people, we are broke and it is time we take on the tough and scary subjects.  We are almost out of road and can no longer just the kick the can.  The right needs to talk openly and honestly about these topics and not allow the media and the left to turn this into throwing granny over the cliff scenario.  Oh, wait they already did that. 

     What are your thoughts? 

     
    • zillaoftheresistance 7:14 AM on 06/14/2011 Permalink | Reply

      What do you have against Rick Santorum?

      • just a conservative girl 9:33 AM on 06/14/2011 Permalink | Reply

        Nothing against him. I won’t vote for anyone who has young children. I seriously question the judgement of anyone who would purposely put their young kids in that fishbowl. Not a healthy environment for them to grow up in.

        Old fashioned idea, yes. Out of the mainstream, yes. But it is a principle I believe in. No young kids in the White House.

        • zillaoftheresistance 8:07 PM on 06/14/2011 Permalink | Reply

          So if he were the nominee would you not vote, vote for Obama, or go 3rd party? I’m voting to get Obama out of the White House, even if I have to hold my nose to vote for a GOP ticket that I don’t like. Obama is too danged destructive, we can’t survive another 4 years of him.

          • just a conservative girl 8:48 PM on 06/14/2011 Permalink | Reply

            I wouldn’t vote for Obama. 3rd Party is pretty hard in Virginia, so I guess I wouldn’t vote. I have the luxury of it being a red state. Yes, it went to Obama last time but that was an abhorition. So I am not all that worried about it.

            But I will NOT bend on this principle. Family is the bedrock of our society and should be only second to God. If someone doesn’t put the well being of their child first, than they don’t deserve my vote.

            • zillaoftheresistance 9:22 PM on 06/14/2011 Permalink | Reply

              So no Sarah Palin for you then. Are Cain’s kids grown? What about Bachmann? I know she’s got a lot of kids but I don’t know their ages.

              • just a conservative girl 10:36 PM on 06/14/2011 Permalink | Reply

                Palin is out. Cain is grandpa so his kids are older. Bachmann’s are all grown as well. The only other one that may be an issue for me could be Pawlenty. I think his kids are right at the age that I would vote for them. I think they are all teenagers. Which to me is still a little young, but at least they have a better comprehension of things at that age.

    • Obi's Sister 8:26 PM on 06/14/2011 Permalink | Reply

      I was pleased that they didn’t attack each other. Obama MUST BE A ONE-TERM PRESIDENT.

      • just a conservative girl 10:37 PM on 06/14/2011 Permalink | Reply

        Me too. Pawlenty got quite a bit of pushback today for not going after Romney, but I think there is still time for that. Especially since you consider that Romney is wimping out for the Iowa straw poll.

c
Compose new post
j
Next post/Next comment
k
Previous post/Previous comment
r
Reply
e
Edit
o
Show/Hide comments
t
Go to top
l
Go to login
h
Show/Hide help
shift + esc
Cancel