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  • just a conservative girl 3:01 PM on 01/02/2012 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , iowa, , , ,   

    Iowa Predicitions 

    For what it is worth, here are my predictions for tomorrow’s caucus in Iowa.  


    While Ron Paul has been falling in the polls over the past week, I still believe he will pull out the victory, but by a small margin.  The reason why is his supporters are loyal to a fault.  They are organized and energized.  They will show up tomorrow night no matter how much snow is on the ground or how cold it is.  No other candidate has that sort of energy behind him.  


    Sadly, Romney will come in second.  My thoughts on Romney becoming the nominee are no secret.  Yuck.  But I do believe that it is inevitable at this point.  I will give his campaign credit where credit is due.  Placing in the top three in Iowa is to paraphrase Biden a BFD.  Romney is not the type of candidate that normally does well in Iowa.  The largest part of the republican party are very social conservative.  


    Santorum will be the real stunner of tomorrow.  He will have a top three finish.  The problem is that he put all his eggs in the Iowa basket,  and not getting a real return on it until now.  He has no money and very little organization moving forward.  New Hampshire is only 8 days away.  Now Santorum is the type of candidate you would expect to do well in Iowa, but not in New Hampshire.  He lacks any clear economic policy of consequence, so he will not get traction moving forward.  I expect him to drop out right around South Carolina.  


    Perry will finish in the top 4.  He also seems to be catching fire again.  He also has social conservative creds that fit well with the average GOP’er in Iowa.  Unlike Santorum, his campaign is still well funded, and he has real plans for the economy and shrinking government.  So he can still catch fire down the road.  He will do well in South Carolina as well.  


    Newt’s star has faded.  He has little money and his inability to get on the ballot in Virginia and Missouri have shown the cracks of his campaign when it comes to discipline and organization.  As late as 10 days ago he didn’t have sponsors to speak for him at every voting location.  He may not still.  Ultimately, people want to vote for a winner and the person who is most likely to run a good general election campaign.  Newt ain’t it.  If he manages to get to Super Tuesday, he may be able to pick up some steam and give Romney a run for his money, but does he have the money to last that long?  Not likely.  


    Bachmann will finish dead last (Huntsman is not competing in Iowa) and will be dropping out of the campaign within the next 7 to 10 days.  I have said all along she wasn’t in it to win it.  She had something to prove to the leadership of the congress who didn’t back her desire for place at the leadership table. 

     
    • zillaoftheresistance 7:36 PM on 01/03/2012 Permalink | Reply

      Actually, Rick Santorum has also been pretty darned organized in New Hampshire AND South Carolina and has made many trips to both places in the past year. He’s been to these places more than most of the other candidates, you probably just don’t know about it because until very recently, everybody but a handful of us bloggers has been ignoring him completely.

  • just a conservative girl 9:25 AM on 08/13/2011 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , , , iowa, mccotter, , , , , straw poll   

    Ames Straw Poll Predications 

    Michele Bachmann will win by a small margin

    Ron Paul will come in second or third.  He is an expert at getting people to vote in straw polls

    Mitt Romney will do better than most people think. 

    Herman Cain will place in the top 6, but it will not be enough to give him the momentum he needs to raise his profile and much-needed cash

    Pawlenty really hurt himself the other night and he fill finish very poorly and will be dropping out of the race before the real vote is cast

    Gingrich will finish close to the bottom, he won’t be too far behind Pawlenty in calling it a day

    Huntsman won’t even register

    Rick Perry will have a very good showing even though he is a write in

    Sarah Palin will do remarkably well for someone who has not announced her candidacy

    Santorum I think will do better than originally predicted, he had a good showing at the debate last night, he is also beloved by social conservatives for his strong and outspoken voice for the voiceless on abortion

    McCotter may actually have a bit of an impact in the poll.  He has a wonderful dry sense of humor and is a Midwesterner  Some votes of his are suspect, but overall a good solid conservative

    I read in the paper today what the candidates are serving in their tents – i.e Cain is serving Godfather Pizza of course, Bachmann is doing B-B-Q and Funnel Cake, Paul wouldn’t announce what he was serving, but the funniest part is that almost every candidate is having Mike Huckabee playing his bass.  He will be making the rounds for the party tomorrow in Ames – I suppose he need to fill his one hour show on Fox

    Who do you think will win? 

     

     
    • SignPainterGuy 5:51 PM on 08/13/2011 Permalink | Reply

      If the current trend holds sway, Ron Paul will continue to win, though it makes no sense to me whatsoever ! The poll cards were surely printed by someone from deep inside the Twilight Zone !

      If I look at the view of the pundits after the debate, Romney will win, but again, how does someone win by virtue of simply “not losing” ? That`s the best I can say about his performance, because his debate responses were middling at best.

      Who do I want to win ? Cain, Santorum and then Bachmann, in that order. They`re the only candidates who have at heart what America really needs !

      Who do I think actually WILL win ? There are too many variables at play for me even to try to guess.

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